Myriad Predictors Cast Doubt on Crypto Santa Rally
As the holiday season approaches, crypto traders hoping for a year-end surge are facing a sobering reality. Predictors on the Myriad prediction market platform are overwhelmingly pessimistic about the prospects of a traditional “Santa rally” for major cryptocurrencies. This sentiment reflects a broader market downturn, with Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and BNB all posting significant losses over the past month, pushing key price targets further out of reach.
Defining the Santa Rally Market
The specific Myriad market in question asks whether at least three of four major crypto assets will hit ambitious price targets by December 25th. These targets include Bitcoin at $99,000, Ethereum at $3,900, Solana at $199, and BNB at $999. As of mid-December, the odds of this festive surge are cratering, with a staggering 96% of predictors betting against it. This represents a significant 12% increase in bearish sentiment over just one week.
Price Performance Analysis
The data underscores the challenge. Bitcoin and Ethereum, while down 8.5% and 11.4% respectively over 30 days, are the relative outperformers. Solana and BNB have fared worse, dropping 16.2% and 11.8%. Each asset remains at least 13% below its respective Santa rally target, making a last-minute surge statistically improbable as the trading window narrows.
Will Trump Pardon Samourai Wallet Developer Keonne Rodriguez?
Beyond market movements, another high-stakes prediction concerns the fate of Keonne Rodriguez, the convicted Samourai Wallet developer. Despite President Trump recently telling Decrypt he is “looking into” a pardon, Myriad predictors remain skeptical. The market, which closes on January 29, 2026, currently shows an 80% probability that Rodriguez will NOT receive a pardon by February.
A Case of Developer Rights vs. Legal Precedent
This case has become a flashpoint for debates over developer liability and financial privacy. Rodriguez himself has expressed doubt about his chances, contrasting his situation with high-profile, well-funded pardons like those of Ross Ulbricht and the Silk Road founder. The market’s current odds suggest predictors believe political rhetoric may not translate into official action in this contentious legal area.
Pop Culture Predictions: Steve Harrington’s Fate in Stranger Things
Shifting from finance to fiction, Myriad also hosts markets on pop culture events. A prominent one focuses on the survival of Steve Harrington in the final season of “Stranger Things.” With the series finale approaching, predictors are placing their bets on whether the beloved character, played by Joe Keery, will meet an on-screen demise.
Odds Favor Survival for the Fan Favorite
As of the latest data, the consensus is optimistic for Steve. Predictors assign only a 17% chance of his death, a notable decrease from previous weeks likely influenced by the events of the first batch of Season 5 episodes. The market rules are strict: only clear, on-screen evidence of death will trigger a “yes” resolution, leaving ambiguous fates like disappearance as a “no.” This market will resolve as the final episodes air on December 25th and New Year’s Eve.
The convergence of these diverse prediction markets on Myriad offers a unique, crowdsourced lens into cryptocurrency sentiment, political outcomes, and entertainment narratives. The overwhelmingly negative outlook on a crypto Santa rally highlights the current risk-off mood among informed predictors as 2025 draws to a close.
