Prospect Markets and Crypto.com Finalize Regulated US Prediction Market Deal
On Sept. 1, Prospect Markets announced that its indirect wholly owned subsidiary, Prospect Brokerage USA LLC, executed a definitive agreement with OG Prediction Markets and Crypto.com’s U.S. derivatives arm, Crypto.com | Derivatives North America (CDNA). The deal moves the partnership beyond a previously announced nonbinding letter of intent and gives the Canadian-listed company its first route into the fast-growing U.S. prediction market business.
Prospect Brokerage will distribute event contracts offered by OG.com and CDNA to U.S. customers. Prospect said the agreement clears the way for it to onboard customers and begin generating revenue from the product, with details on branding, marketing and the exact launch date expected before the platform goes live.
How the platform’s regulated structure works
Under the agreement, Prospect Brokerage USA LLC will operate as a Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)-registered introducing broker and connect customers with event contracts listed by CDNA. CDNA operates as a CFTC-registered designated contract market and derivatives clearing organization. Customers will be introduced to the contracts through Crypto.com affiliate Foris DAX FCM LLC, which operates as OG Broker and is registered as a futures commission merchant.
That structure gives Prospect access to existing federally regulated trading and clearing infrastructure without requiring it to build its own exchange and clearing operation. OG Prediction Markets launched in February, offering CFTC-regulated contracts tied to sports, financial markets and other real-world events. The product combines prediction trading with social features and leaderboards, and contracts are provided through Crypto.com’s U.S. derivatives infrastructure.
Prospect plans to build its offering around sports, where event contracts have generated a large share of prediction market activity.
“We intend to be live for sports fans ahead of the upcoming NFL and NBA seasons,” Prospect Markets founder and CEO Johnny Chen said. Chen called the definitive agreement a “company-defining milestone” and said the companies worked toward completing the deal during the year. Crypto.com Chief Legal Officer Steve Humenik added, “Formalizing this definitive agreement with Prospect is a major step in expanding access to fully regulated, event-based prediction markets across the U.S.”
Sports Contracts Drive Record Prediction Market Volumes
Prospect enters the sector after sports trading helped push prediction market volumes to record levels during the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
- Combined monthly trading volume across major prediction platforms jumped from less than $5 billion in September 2025 to approximately $25.7 billion in May 2026, according to figures cited by Prospect.
- Monthly notional volume surpassed $50 billion in June as the World Cup and NBA Finals drove activity.
- Sports represented roughly 85% of trading volume on the sector’s largest platform during June.
- Prediction markets captured an estimated 27% of legal U.S. sports-betting volume during the World Cup, compared with around 9% at the beginning of 2026.
Crypto.news previously reported that the World Cup pushed sector-wide activity to roughly $45 billion in June, while Polymarket alone handled close to $5 billion in tournament-related trading. Chainalysis later reported that more than 400,000 wallets participated, with $5.7 billion traded during the competition’s five-week run.
Bernstein Sees Sizeable Growth Ahead
Prospect cited Bernstein estimates that prediction market trading could reach approximately $240 billion in 2026, up 370% from 2025, before climbing to around $1 trillion annually by 2030. The research firm expects distribution partnerships, institutional participation and clearer federal rules to contribute to that expansion.
Bernstein has made similar projections while examining individual platforms. In June, the firm estimated Robinhood’s potential 2026 revenue against a 2025 figure of $150 million, after World Cup activity pushed daily market volumes as high as $4.8 billion.
Crypto.com Extends Its Distribution Push
The Prospect agreement adds another distribution channel for Crypto.com as it pushes its regulated prediction products beyond its own platforms. In May, Crypto.com and OG entered a multiyear partnership with the U.S. SailGP Team, becoming its official crypto exchange and prediction market partners; the deal allowed fans to access the products through OG.
Robinhood was separately reported in July to be discussing a deal that could bring event contracts to its prediction markets hub, although no final agreement had been announced at that time. Distribution agreements have become a common route for financial platforms seeking prediction-market exposure without operating their own designated contract markets. Gemini Space Station and Apex Fintech Solutions signed a letter of intent in August covering regulated crypto prediction contracts for brokerages using Apex’s infrastructure.
Regulatory Disputes Cast a Shadow Over Sports Event Contracts
The planned U.S. launch comes as federal and state authorities remain divided over the regulatory treatment of sports event contracts. CFTC-regulated exchanges have maintained that event contracts offered through designated contract markets fall under federal derivatives law. Several state gaming regulators and industry groups have challenged that position, arguing that sports contracts function as wagering products and should comply with state gambling laws.
The U.S. gaming industry urged Congress in June to bar such platforms from operating under federal derivatives rules, arguing that the products allow platforms to bypass state and tribal gaming requirements. Legal disputes have continued in several states. A federal judge in Wisconsin rejected a CFTC request in July to stop the state from applying its gambling laws to federally regulated prediction market operators, including Crypto.com, Kalshi, Polymarket, Robinhood and Coinbase.
Prospect’s product will use CDNA’s CFTC-registered exchange and clearing infrastructure, with OG Broker handling the futures commission merchant relationship and Prospect Brokerage operating as the registered introducing broker. The company is targeting a launch during the third quarter and said it will release further information on product details, branding, launch timing and marketing plans.
